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FedEx Company: Strategy Analysis

Introduction

FedEx Corporation, established in 1973, is a multinational entity that operates in the courier services industry. Some of the products offered by the company are express mail, third party logistics, post delivery, and freight forwarding. The Corporation is a public entity that trades on the New York Stock Exchange with the ticker symbol FDX. Further, it is a component of the S&P 500 index (FedEx Corporation, 2014b). The paper seeks to carry out financial forecasts for growth and expansion into the international market.

Analysis

The company has reported growth in financial performance over the past years. For instance, revenues grew from $35,497 million in 2009 to $44,287 million in 2013. Also, the net income rose from $98 million in 2009 to $1,561 million in 2013. Further, the total assets grew from $24,244 million in 2009 to $33,567 million in 2013 (FedEx Corporation, 2014b). The balance of total investment in common stockholder also rose from $13,626 million in 2009 to $17,398 million in 2013. The company has a plan for growing and expanding into the international markets such as China, Brazil, Mexico, and India. The 2013 annual report shows that the growth and expansion plan has led to an increase in revenue (FedEx Corporation, 2014a). For instance, revenue from the international market rose from $653 million in 2011 to $1.4billion in 2013. In order to support the growth and expansion plan, the company intends to spend $4.0 billion in 2014 (FedEx Corporation, 2014a). The amount will purchase additional aircraft. With this additional capital expenditure, the company expects profitability to increase to $1.6billion by the end of 2016. From Yahoo Finance, the expected growth rate for the next five years is 15.34%, while the growth rate for the industry is 10.57% (Yahoo Finance, 2014). Further, the growth rate of the sector is 9.65% while the growth rate S&P 500 index is 9.81% (Yahoo Finance, 2014). The weighted average cost of capital for the FedEx Corporation is 13.55% (Morningstar, Inc., 2014).

Projection of net profit

The growth rate that will be used for the best case scenario is 15.34%. In the case of the worst case scenario, the growth rate will be 9.65%. The table presented below shows the projection of net profit for the next five years.

Net profit in millions Growth rate 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Best case scenario 15.53% 1,561 1803.42 2083.49 2407.06 2780.88 3212.75
Worst case scenario 9.65% 1,561 1711.64 1876.81 2057.92 2256.51 2474.26

The calculations above shows that the net profit in 2018 under the best case scenario will be $3,212.75 million. This implies that the profit is likely to double at the end of the five years if the company continues to implement the growth and expansion plan. Further, under the worst case scenario the net profit in 2018 will be $2,474.26million. The total growth is equivalent to 59%.

Estimation of net present value

The capital expenditure will be the cost of aircraft and other costs that are related to growth and expansion. This amounts to $4.0 billion. Depreciation of this cost will be estimated using the straight line approach. Besides, it will be assumed that there is no residual value. The cost of capital is 13.55%.

Calculation of depreciation

  • = $4,000million / 5
  • = 800million

The table presented below shows the calculation of net present value under the best case scenario.

Year Capital expenditure Net profit Depreciation Cash flow
Net profit + Depreciation
Total cash flow Discount factor at 13.55% Present value
2014 -4,000 1803.4 840 2643.42 -1,357 0.880669 -1194.70
2015 2083.5 840 2923.49 2,923 0.775578 2267.40
2016 2407.1 840 3247.06 3,247 0.683028 2217.83
2017 2780.9 840 3620.88 3,621 0.601522 2178.04
2018 3212.8 840 4052.75 4,053 0.529742 2146.91
Total 7615.48

The table presented below shows the calculation of net present value under the worst case scenario.

Year Capital expenditure Net profit Depreciation Cash flow
Net profit + Depreciation
Total cash flow Discount factor at 13.55% Present value
2014 -4000 1711.6 840 2551.64 -1448.36 0.880669 -1275.53
2015 1876.8 840 2716.81 2716.81 0.775578 2107.099
2016 2057.9 840 2897.92 2897.92 0.683028 1979.361
2017 2256.5 840 3096.51 3096.51 0.601522 1862.619
2018 2474.3 840 3314.26 3314.26 0.529742 1755.702
Total 6429.255

The calculations show that under the best case scenario, the estimated net present value will be $7,615.48million, while under the worst case scenario the net present value will be $6,429.255. The two values are positive. This implies that the company will have positive returns if it invest in the growth and expansion plan. Therefore, it should pursue the project (Steven, 2007).

Conclusion

The paper carried out a forecast of profit for FedEx Corporation. The calculations show that the company will earn $3,212.75 million in the best case scenario and $2,474.26million in the worst case scenario at the end of 2018. Also, the net present value criterion was used to evaluate the viability of investing $4billion in growth and expansion. The result of net present value for both best and worst case scenarios are positive. This shows that the company should pursue the project.

References

FedEx Corporation. (2014a). Company overview – FedEx express strategy. Web.

FedEx Corporation. (2014b). FedEx annual report 2013. Web.

Morningstar, Inc. (2014). FedEx Corp – FDX. Web.

Steven, B. (2007). Financial analysis a controllers guide: Financial analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Yahoo Finance. (2014). FedEx Corporation (FDX). Web.

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Essay4Business. (2022, September 3). FedEx Company: Strategy Analysis. Retrieved from https://essay4business.com/fedex-company-strategy-analysis/

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